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Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change

Most of the studies conducted to assess the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Middle East including 

the Gulf region are based on the general circulation models (GCMs).

However, the sensitivity studies using the GCMs provide broad information on the impact assessments and adaptation planning to climate change.

This is particularly true for smaller states like Qatar and other GCC States for which the GCMs model resolution is low (300 km2) and hence do not provide in-depth information and reliable predictions.

It is therefore necessary to have outputs from Regional Climate Models, in order to obtain fine-scale climate prediction information for smaller countries like Qatar.

Regional climate models (RCMs) with high resolution (typically 50 Km2) are being developed for smaller areas and for shorter time scales (20 years).

Qatar would need such model outputs to make better estimations of vulnerability and adaptation.  

Along with the regional climate model outputs, other tools such as sea level change models, digital elevation models (GIS), population distribution, human settlements, infrastructure and natural resources are also needed.

Once reliable high resolution climate and sea level change scenarios are generated a detailed impact assessment for cities, off-shore installations and different coastal zones can be done.

With integrated analysis of outputs from all such models, a detailed vulnerability assessment would be possible.

With these assessments, potential impacts are to be addressed in terms of social, economic and natural systems whose degree of vulnerability can vary considerably with different temperature and sea level rise scenarios.

They are for example, coastal zones, dry land terrestrial ecosystems, marine ecosystems, human settlements, public health, energy and infrastructure etc., which are sensitive to projected future climate conditions.

Through its long association with scientists from the UN IPCC Working Groups, Eco Qatar is well positioned to coordinate a program on regional-scale climate change modeling designed to benefit Qatar and the other regional States of the Gulf in the area of vulnerability and adaptation assessment.